Beef Supplies Are Sharply Reduced Because of Drought in the Beef Raising States
Drought Depletes Beef Cattle Herds
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March 9, 1977
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SUTHERLAND, Neb., March 8—From the back of the nervous gray cow pony he was riding, Robert Fear swung his arm in a half circle, pointing toward the scraggly clumps of range grass stretching away over the sandy hillsides of his ranch in southwest‐central Nebraska.
"It's just not there this year," he said, raising his voice to be heard over the cold wind.
After three years of below‐average rainfall over the Great Plains of western Nebraska and Kansas, eastern Colorado and Wyoming, the range land that normally feeds hundreds of thousands of beef cattle had been grazed down.
In many parts of western Kansas and eastern Colorado, the tiny ponds that ranchers use to water their cattle are at dangerously low levels,
Mr. Fear and hundreds of other fellow cattlemen are among the latest victims of the growing Western drought, which already is having a severe impact on crops in California and is gradually spreading through the vast farm belt of the Middle West.
This is the worst period of dryness here since the 1930's. And, while these cattlemen are feeling the most immediate effect, consumers across the country seem likely to see higher prices on vegatables and fruits later this year unless some unforeseen break comes. These same consumers are also likely to see a drop in meat nrices as cattlemen like Mr. Fear are forced to sell off their stock to avoid losing herds completely because of the drought.
In what passes for a normal year in this semiarid region, Mr. Fear and other Great Plains ranchers would be able to feed their herds year‐round on their ranges. Now his 11,000 acres of grass is so low that he can sustain his 1,000 head of cattle on it for barely four months of the year.
The rest of the time, he has to feed them the expensive hay he grows with water he pumps from an irrigation well that now costs him three times as much in diesel fuel as it did three years ago, when it was drilled.
In the eight‐state area that lies between the Rocky Mountains and the Missouri River more than 1.3 million beef cattle were sold off by the end of last year, many of them before they were normally ready for market.
If it does not rain unusually heavily in the next 60 days, Mr. Fear and his neighbors will have to decide how many more animals they will have to move off ahead of schedule.
"I'm the fourth generation to raise cattle on this ranch, and I've learned there's no such thing as 'normal' weather out here," Mr. Fear said. "But in my 43 years, this is the worst period I've seen." He added:
"If it stays this dry, I'll be moving cattle off here in August instead of the late fall. It's not economical right now to keep as many as I have, but, like a lot of people here, I'll hang on as long as I can in hopes we'll get enough moisture to go back to our usual operations."
Beef Prices Steady in '76
This continuing reduction in the number of cattle brought retail beef prices to a steady, comparatively low level last year. If the drought continues, beef prices should drop even further in the next eight months.
"In the short run, it's the consumer who'll benefit if the drought continues." Topper Thorpe a director of information for the American National Cattlemen's Association, said in Denver recently.
"If it doesn't rain hard in the next 60 days in the Great Plains, thousands of head [of cattle] will be forced to market, the prices will go down and a lot of ranchers will be in serious financial trouble," he said. "But, in the long run. there'll be a big reduction in the beef supply, and all next year retail prices will soar."
In the marginal land of the old Dust Bowl in Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado Mississippi River the subsoil moisture on which unirrigated corn soybeans and wheat depend is now at its poorest levels on record.
In the marginal land of the old "Dust Bowl" in Oklahoma. Kansas. Colorado and Nebraska, 711,000 acres of crop and range land have already been damaged by wind storms, and an additional 7.8 million acres are so dry and overgrazed that they are classed as "in condition to blow."
In the marginal lands of the old "Dust Bowl" in Oklahoma, Kansas. Colorado and Nebraska. 711,000 acres of crop and range land have already been damaged by wind storms, and an additional 7.8 million acres are so dry and overgrazed that they are classed as "in condition to blow."
Snow Depth at Low Level
The snow fields in the Colorado Rockies that send runoff water eastward into the Great Plains are now only 40 percent of normal depths, and in many areas they are the lowest since records have been kept.
The long, thin strip of farmland along the Arkansas River from Pueblo, Colo.. eastward to Garden City, Kan., which in average years produces crops of corn, melons, tomatoes and sorghum, is now threatened with the loss of much of its irrigation water.
The stream flow in the Arkansas is now so low that, unless it rains far above the average this spring, only a few farmers with senior water rights will have enough to harvest a crop.
The North and South Platte Rivers, which provide irrigation water for northeastern Colorado, southeastern Wyoming and half of central Nebraska, can also expect little from the snow melt. But, in contrast to the Arkansas, the manmade reservoirs in the Platte Valley have enough water in storage to keep the flow normal throughout the rest of this year. according to the Bureau of Reclamation in Denver.
And in central Nebraska and Kansas, thousands of acres of corn and wheat are now irrigated from wells drilled into the Ogallala Sands, the vast aquifer that holds billions of gallons of water.
Although these thousands of irrigation wells are pullling the water table down in many areas, the water‐bearing sands are so deep that only in places where the wells are too shallow or improperly placed is there a threat of serious shortages in the next few years.
The nation's winter wheat crop, the principal source of bread wheat for the United States and many other countries. was planted last fall in abnormally dry ground. In many parts of the Great Plains, the crop is now in very poor condition. And without rain soon, the spring wheat crop in the northern Middle West will have difficulty growing.
But even if the 1977 wheat yields are cut in half by the drought, the United States will have more than a billion bushels, about half of last year's record crop, left over. This is 300 million bushels more than was consumed in the United States last year.
A sharply reduced corn crop would be a more serious problem. Although the Department of Agriculture expects more than 700 million bushels to be left over this year from last year's record 6.2‐billion‐bushel crop, this would not be enough to prevent corn prices from rising next fall.
Since corn is the principal livestock feed, higher prices would, by the end of this year, mean higher retail prices for pork, beef and poultry.
Although most farmers and ranchers prospered in the high market years from 1972 through 1974, cattlemen have had two unprofitable years since then. Along with the dry‐land wheat farmers in the Great Plains who lost crops last year. many of them are in a precarious financial position.
The Federal Reserve Bank in Kansas City, which oversees lending institutions in the Great Plains states, recently reported that more than 65 percent of the farmers and ranchers in the Great Plains area were seeking extensions or renewals of loan payments they were unable to meet.
Fear and uncertainty over the weather, compounded by the credit squeeze, has caused a slowdown in buying by farmers and ranchers, and Great. Plains merchants are beginning to feel the effects of this.
Farm Implement Sales Down
Farm implement sales one of the best. barometers of farm and ranch prosperity. declined sharply in the last year and there was nothing in the immediate outlook to indicate any improvement.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/1977/03/09/archives/drought-depletes-beef-cattle-herds-drought-in-middle-west-forcing.html
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